Hard Times Coming

I'm not one that thinks "the whole country" will collapse. Many parts will suffer, but they will suffer differently.

I was reading Wilder, Wealthy, Wise today, and he seems to anticipate a major meltdown at some point. And, he may be right.

But, I do doubt that the entire country will experience the collapse simultaneously, and in the same way. Some of the differences:

• We're a BIG country. Our climates vary from near-tropical to Arctic. We have deserts, mountains, coastal - both North and South, each having their own challenges, and plains. Each region will face different challenges in coping with economic and governmental pressures.
• The shipping logjam is affecting many parts of the economy. But our biggest industry - food - is not generally on the coasts. The idiocy of CA in shutting off water to the CA farming communities means that they really don't have much of a food supply that isn't shipped in, either from Middle America, or overseas. They better treat their dairy farmers right, as that is one food industry that is still active.
• The Farmbelt is in more trouble than they realize. The recent push for China and Tech Giants to invest in farmland means that they will be highly mechanized, and they will likely not have enough people with the expertise to handle it. They better not expect that the farmers they bought off will come back, hat in hand, to beg for the opportunity to work land they formerly owned. Ain't gonna happen.
• If those high-tech machines break, they will be screwed - they won't have the parts to fix them, nor the people who've learned to work out ways to get the equipment working.
• China needs to get $$$$$ flowing for those investments; for the most part, Asians overpay for their land purchases. They have no clue that land is really cheap in the United States (except for those rarified enclaves that the extremely wealthy live in - and, yes, if you buy a $1 million+ house, you ARE wealthy - you just don't realize it). So, if the Chinese economy tanks - as seems likely at present - they will likely need to sell some of that land - at fire-sale prices. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the same families that sold the land buy it back, cheap.
• Weather patterns will affect the collapse. The North/Midwest/Upper West will experience the pinch first. My bones are telling me this is likely to be a BAD winter. If it is, we'll be in trouble by early January, at the latest. Fortunately, just a few months later, most of the USA gets into Spring thaw time. I'm expecting a MASSIVE RUN on seeds and home garden items at that time. I've already got a lot of my equipment and supplies stored away, and I'll be filling in the remainder by hitting yard sale/resale shop/Facebook Marketplace sales. FB Marketplace is fast replacing yard sales - I've bought some furniture, and it was a great experience.
• By summer, CA will be in trouble. They won't have that bail-out money to keep them going, temps will be miserable, and the state government will be their usual efficient selves. Don't be surprised if the first uprising happens there.
• The South will have a brutal time of it in the warmer months, should the electric supply be affected by fuel prices. I've lived there, and it is energy-sapping in that humidity, when the electricity goes out. I wouldn't be surprised that some uprisings happen - not in the truly poor areas, but urban, and encouraged/facilitated by the "revolutionaries". After all, many of the urban living spaces are dependent on AC. When that goes out, modern apartment buildings and offices can't just open windows. And, many of those areas are just about barren of trees, losing that natural source of protection from the sun. The country will be relatively OK, as country always is. When you're surrounded by trees/vegetation, you may be hot, but you're not likely to die from heat.

A lot of us are concluding the country is on the verge. Some are moving off-grid, or to rural areas where the likelihood of government coming in is reduced. Others are moving to Red states, and working to keep them so.

I moved to a small city that is surrounded by semi-rural towns, in a state that is, outside of a few large cities, a Red State. I'm within about 1/2 hour of family, in a middle class part of the city, where most people work for a living. And, most of the minorities are working class Hispanics. A  small number of Asian and Black people.

My goal is to get a solid foothold with my insurance business, and through that, to identify and build alliances among other residents. I don't expect this all to topple down in a short time - it may take several years of stutter-stepping problems to bring us there. In the meantime, I'll be networking, prepping, and getting ready for hunkering down.

We're a ways - not as far as I would like - but several years away from complete meltdown. Even the current dire situation at the shipping docks will mostly affect non-essential industries. When I say essential, I mean:

- Food - not the processed junk, but raw food. We've been in the habit of sending it overseas for processing, but we could manage to ship unprocessed food via truck and train. The biggest problem will be the increased cost of shipping, due to rising fuel prices.

- Water. I know that treated water is a concern in many parts of the countries. That was a major part of why I chose to move back to the Great Lakes region, where I was born. This region has water treatment facilities, plentiful supplies of H2O, and the ability to crank it out for the local residents. Those in desert regions, or aquifers that are hitting bottom, truly have my sympathy. I have no idea how they will survive.

- Fuel - not merely for truckers and commuters. In a sizeable portion of the North, you need fuel to heat your house in sub-freezing temps. This would be a good time to lay in an alternative source of heat, either portable heaters (electric and/or kerosene), wood heat for those lucky enough to have working fireplace/stoves, or a propane tank. As my house has no wood-based heating, I'll be buying a couple of kerosene heaters, and working on weather-fitting the house. Outlet covers, draft-stoppers, insulated drapes, plastic covers for the windows, insulation for pipes. We lived through 1977, when the upper PA region had an extended cold snap, and we had MONTHS of sub-zero temps. We moved the whole family into one central room and closed the doors, put the kerosene heater to work, piled on the blankets, and slept together for warmth. There were a couple of WEEKS of brownouts (reduced electricity for relatively short time periods). We used lanterns for light. And, we survived.

- Fortunately, we bought a century home, built long enough ago, that central heating was not a standard. The exterior walls are plaster, and the interior is NOT an open floor plan, but has doors that can close off sections to reduce heating needs. We have a full basement, which means that we have the equivalent of an partially earth-sheltered home. Homes with a basement will stay warmer than slab homes. And, in the summer, much cooler on the lower levels, too.

- People who, while not preppers, have a realistic idea of what would be needed, should they not be able to travel to the store several times a week. Even the LEAST prepared family has a stocked pantry, shelf-stable ingredients, and often a freezer filled with meat and fish. Many hunt for food, or have family members who do. That's a natural artifact of living in a region that has massive amounts of snow dumped periodically, storms that take out trees and power lines, and a solidly Euro-peasant heritage that passed along the basic survival skills. Most have snowplows, snowblowers, or shovels and a strong back (or, know someone who could help out in a pinch). We've survived without power for extended times. We've used candles/lanterns. Many have access to a generator or solar panels (that last is of little value in overcast environments, which much of snow country is).

- Those in the country/rural areas can mostly fend for themselves. Those who moved to the country, threw up a mega-mansion (knocking down most of the trees in the process), and spent most of their week commuting, may be in some trouble, particularly if they didn't exert themselves to meet the neighbors and get involved with the community. Some will manage to adapt - probably not many. In the country, without family or long-term friendships, you're kind of a hermit. Few of them manage to survive, unless they are prepared to live off the land.

- Those who are most at risk of being helpless? They extended themselves financially, cannot manage without two incomes, and have a buttload of debt, coupled with over-housing (paying too much money for too much space). If just ONE of their carefully balanced supports is not there, they are SO screwed. They will likely be found in their homes, not willing to leave for cheaper housing, not willing to give up any of their stuff at a discount, to help them relocate in a more manageable location. They will try to hang in there while the Vandals are at the gates of their community.

- The second group that is in trouble? The Dependents - Welfare, Unemployment, SSI, Social Security. They have no other choice, should that support not arrive on time. The elderly without family close by should be looking into other options.

Those who can, should be working on improving their physical fitness. Many of these urban poor are those showing up at those drive-through food pantries, time and again. Many of these are very resistant to changing their current way of life.

Those are the ones that will be taking to the streets, should the bubble burst. Some of them will sit and wait for rescue. Others will grab weapons, and become the Vandals.

The rest? If they have any sense at all, they will pay down debt, buy prep-type supplies (no huge steel cans of oatmeal, just well-stocked shelves and freezers), and prepare to do without energy - or with sporadic access to it - for extended periods of time. Many living in the suburbs will be prepared; others, with as much education and money, will be grasshoppers.

Be an ant, not a grasshopper.

This is a much more optimistic and hopeful story than the original. It's one of the few I could find that DOESN'T have the ant taking pity on the grasshopper, and feeding him in the winter. It also assumes survival, which is not likely.